Milei promises shock therapy for Argentina

  • Milei promises shock therapy for Argentina

    Posted by Economics on November 20, 2023 at 5:58 pm

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    A self-described “anarcho-capitalist” and radical libertarian who has expressed support for the sale of human organs, referred to his country’s largest trading partner as “murderous”, denounced Pope Francis as a “filthy leftist” and climate change as a “socialist hoax” is president-elect of Argentina.

    Javier Milei swept to victory in Sunday’s run-off election, promising “drastic changes” to the country’s economic strategy amid its worst crisis in two decades.

    The first-term congressman emerged as the frontrunner in August after promising — with a chainsaw as prop — to slash spending, “burn down the central bank” and replace the Argentine peso with the US dollar.

    Although he attempted to rebrand as a “normal guy” ahead of the run-off, Milei came out of the traps pretty quickly in his first day as president-elect, pledging to privatise the national oil company YPF as well as state television and radio. “Everything which can be in private sector hands, will be in private sector hands,” he vowed.

    The country’s business leaders had struggled to muster enthusiasm for Milei or his opponent, economy minister Sergio *****, after their preferred candidate Patricia Bullrich was eliminated in October’s first round of voting.

    The business community will also be worried that Milei’s election, as Alan Beattie notes in today’s Trade Secrets newsletter (for Premium subscribers), might put the whole direction of South American trade in doubt. The long-stalled “cows for cars” treaty between the EU and the Mercosur group of countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) had been nearing agreement after 20 years of wrangling but, after Milei previously pledged to withdraw Argentina from the bloc, that now looks in jeopardy.

    The country’s stock market is closed for a public holiday today but US-listed shares in Argentine companies rose after the election result. Bonds also rose, although remaining at levels that indicated investor scepticism about returns.

    Parliamentary arithmetic and the dire state of the country’s economy pose huge challenges for the insurgent, writes Latin America editor Michael Stott, meaning that some of Milei’s wilder promises were unlikely to be enacted, at least in the short term.

    Regional presidents who lack congressional majorities often come unstuck, even in better economic circumstances, Stott notes. And even if Milei manages to stave off the country’s slide into hyperinflation, he still has to deal with a vast pile of domestic debt and renegotiate a $44bn deal with the IMF.

    Still, at least he may have an influential friend to the north come next November. Donald Trump, to whom Milei has frequently drawn comparisons, was quick off the mark with his congratulations: “I am very proud of you,” Trump said. “You will turn your country around and truly Make Argentina Great Again!”

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